CONVECTIVE FORECAST + + + CORRECTED + + +
VALID 06Z MON 26/07 - 06Z TUE 27/07 2004
ISSUED: 25/07 22:49Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across much of central and eastern Europe

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 Z... an eastward moving mid/upper trough, initially over western Scandinavia is expected to sharpen over central Europe. A cut-off low is expected to form there, after the forecast period. On its eastern flank large-scale rising motions are expected to help initiate convective activity over the Balkans.

DISCUSSION

...Serbia, Hungary the Slovak Republic and southeastern Poland...
One or two large storm clusters/MCS's may form near a baroclinic zone most likely over Serbia, Hungary the Slovak Republic and southeastern Poland. Wind shear is low, so that no more than very isolated severe activity is expected.

#